How To Make Money In Last Chaos – Opportunities in Chaos and How to Make Money from It This quintessential black swan expected to happen once every 100 years
An individual should know and never forget that investments and the markets are not for the faint of heart and short of breath.
How To Make Money In Last Chaos
March 2020 is a time that all investors would love to forget and will never remember. The Coronavirus had then turned from a health problem confined to China’s Wuhan province to a global pandemic that shut down the entire world.
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The impact of the pandemic is unprecedented. This quintessential black swan that is expected to occur once every 100 years has changed the way humanity lives.
Without first-hand experience, it would be hard to imagine how a crisis that is clearly a health issue could shake the financial system to the core as it is today. In March 2020, there was a global stock sell-off that sent all of the world’s major markets into the red and into historic lows, leaving many investors in financial pain. It was the end of the world… Or so it was thought…
A year later, it is important for investors to equip themselves by looking back at that period to see what the stock world looks like now. As mentioned, hindsight is always 2020. It is important to look back with the title of this article in mind: are there opportunities in chaos? Admittedly, COVID-19 was and is a crisis we never want to repeat itself, but what if it was also a golden opportunity to improve the financial well-being of the savvy investor who looked beyond the chaos to see the opportunities that are so rare? be like the pandemic itself?
It is possible to earn money when the sky falls and when other people run to the hills. Chaos always presents itself along with opportunity. Whether or not an investor makes money depends on whether he or she understands this same concept. It should always be clear that capital is notoriously shy, the slightest sign of upheaval will crush it.
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The Dow Jones’ drop of nearly 3,000 points on March 16, 2020 was the largest one-day drop in U.S. stock market history to date. In percentage terms, it was the third worst decline in US history. However, unlike some previous crashes, the market quickly recovered and set new records in late 2020 and early 2021, according to The Balance, a personal finance website. Just in case anyone had any doubts about how bad the sale was then, Forbes magazine called it the arrival of the bear and made comparisons of the market decline with the crashes of 1987 and 1929. In the magazine’s words: “To give you some perspective Since the 1920s, the worst one-day drop was Black Monday, October 19, 1987 (20.5% drop). The second worst was October 28, 1929 (down 12.3%), and the third was in March 2020.” This was after the market took a 19% blow after the S&P 500 index fell 34% on March 23, 2020.
Other global markets followed suit, documenting record lows across the board. On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), Business Day reported that the worst losses around the same period were about ZAR 3.3 trillion, which was about two-thirds of South Africa’s GDP at the time.
SA’s main stock index fell nearly 10% on Thursday (March 12, 2020), the largest decline since October 1997, as global markets found themselves in the midst of the Asian financial crisis.”
On the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE), the global sell-off coincided with an upheaval unique to the Zimbabwean market, so the Zimbabwe Independent, a leading weekly, said in March 2021 the stock market was expected to decline after the lockdown. was announced. Above the actual sell-off, the ZSE lost value as authorities banned the fungibility of certain stocks around that time and, a short time later, closed the stock market altogether for weeks. “The pandemic will negatively impact economic growth in 2020. By extension, the performance of companies, including publicly traded companies, will be heavily impacted, causing share prices to be largely bearish as well,” according to the Independent.
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Despite the financial carnage, however, well-positioned investors with access to liquidity had a golden opportunity to acquire shares in quality companies that have since bounced back in price from sell-off levels at spot prices.
Sasol’s stock price was one of the hardest hit due to the pandemic selloff and for other reasons, namely overexposure to US$ denominated debt and cost overruns with the Lake Charles project in the United States, along with the fall in oil prices around the same time.
Sasol is an internationally integrated chemical and energy company, leveraging the technologies and expertise of more than 31,270 people working in 32 countries. The company develops and commercializes technologies, builds and operates facilities on a global scale to produce a range of high-value product streams, including liquid fuels, chemicals and low-carbon electricity. The company has been a pioneer in energy and fuel solutions for 60 years. The company began developing a new technology to extract oil from coal in the 1950s, resulting in what has come to be known as synthetic fuels. It grew from that time on with state aid and eventually became a private entity through privatization in 1979 through an IPO on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
The company has always been a darling of the investment community because it seemed to have an almost endless supply of growing profits. According to its website, Sasol was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2003 and continued its astronomical growth trajectory beyond the African continent to different parts of the world. The company’s Achilles heel came when it made the decision to go into hydraulic fracking with its Lake Charles project. The company posted a loss of ZAR91 billion in 2020.
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According to the Africa Report, the company’s foray into the US market, “… allowed the company to exceed its gearing ratio and jeopardize its balance sheet. This shocked the market and led to a run on Sasol’s stock. The debt markets, in turn, turned down the integrated chemical and energy company, and the board stepped in last year and launched an investigation to determine the root causes of Sasol’s problems.”
It was a classic example of an ailing business at the time. Nothing tells the story more clearly than the share price at that time. During the sell-off, Sasol shares fell to their lowest level in more than 20 years. In March, Sasol shares traded at R21!
Sasol had about $10 billion in debt and its weak balance sheet prevented it from tapping into the debt market. Sasol executives then set in motion plans to sell assets to reduce debt by $6 billion in fiscal 2021.
Executives negotiated with Air Liquide about the sale of 16 air separation units at Secunda. The sale of a 51% stake in Sasol’s explosives business to Enaex was also completed. The company agreed to sell its indirect stake in the Escravos gas-to-liquids project in Nigeria to supermajor Chevron. These asset divestments raised $3 billion in cash and were accompanied by a $2 billion rights offering.
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Since its listing on the JSL 40 years ago, Sasol has been a consistent performer. The turnaround did not come immediately; it’s ongoing, but the stock price has risen nearly 10-fold from the lowest level of R21. Sasol shares are now trading at around R208!
The stock price still has a long way to go to reach the level it traded at before the crisis triggered by the pandemic. In 2018, Sasol shares traded in the region of ZAR576. There is still a chance for the savvy investor to act as the petrochemical giant’s shares return to pre-crisis levels.
Sasol is just one case. There are many other ‘Sasols’ on the JSE and the ZSE. The opportunities that chaos presents would provide the savvy investor with excellent opportunities to make money and increase their wealth in the long run. However, these opportunities are not easily discernible and require an investor to develop certain traits in order to take advantage of them.
Richemont, the luxury goods company, is another example. If you had bought and held his shares during or after the sale, you would have doubled your capital! Another company involved is Sibanye Stillwater, the largest platinum producer in the world. The shares could have been bought for R18 after the sell-off, but as of today they are trading in the region of R58. An investor would have tripled his or her capital if he had bought shares in the miner during that period and held them to date.
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Chaos and risk are part of life. The periods of irrational exuberance in
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